Econometrics is a tool for proving hypotheses deduced from economic theories. Estimation can be done very simply by least squares method, and hypotheses can thus be tested. However, this simplicity often hides presumptions which guarantee credibility of the test results. Posterior evaluation to examine effectiveness of the presumptions is demanded. If some presumptions are found to be failed, more sophisticated estimation methods and testing methods should be applied.
Econometrics is also a tool for forecasting. However, in the forecasting process, the fact that estimated parameters and predicted values are stochastic variables is often set aside. We should learn that variance of the forecast is equally important to its value.
Starting from the Classical Simple Regression model, we study multiple regression model with matrix algebra, and methods to test hypothesis either simple or combined for examining structural changes. Further we study how to deal with problems caused by model specification, i.e. selection of explanatory variables and functional form, and those by multiple collinearity.
Regression models are then extended as generalized classical regression model to treat with problems caused by heteroskedasticity and serial correlation.
Least Sqaures Method, Regression Model, Classical Regression Model, Matrix Algebra, Hypothesis Testing,Structural Change, Model Specification, Multiple-collinearity, Generalized Classical Regression Model, Heteroskedasticity, Serial Correlation
✔ Specialist skills | Intercultural skills | Communication skills | Critical thinking skills | Practical and/or problem-solving skills |
Scheduled contents are lectured on. Answers to end-of-chapter exercises are given in advance, and students scrutinize them as homework.
Course schedule | Required learning | |
---|---|---|
Class 1 | Introduction | |
Class 2 | Conditional Expected Value and Line Fitting | |
Class 3 | Classical Bivariate Regression Model | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 4 | Test of Parameters and Forecast | |
Class 5 | Multivariate Regression Model | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 6 | Classical Multivariate Regression Model | |
Class 7 | Hypothesis Test | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 8 | Application of Multivariate Regression Model | |
Class 9 | Test of Multiple Hypotheses: Constrained Regression and Test of Structural Change | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 10 | Model Specification | |
Class 11 | Multi-Collinearity | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 12 | Generalized Classical Regression Model: Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation (1) | |
Class 13 | Generalized Classical Regression Model: Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation (2) | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Class 14 | Generalized Classical Regression Model: Estimation of Simultaneous Equations (1) | |
Class 15 | Generalized Classical Regression Model: Estimation of Simultaneous Equations (2) | End-of-chapter exercise related to scheduled contents of the class |
Asano & Nakamura(2009) "Econometrics" Second Edition, Yuuhikaku (in Japanese)
No particular references.
40% by homeworks, and 60% by Final Examination.
Prerequisite
IEE.A204 : Probability for Industrial Engineering and Economics
IEE.A205 : Statistics for Industrial Engineering and Economics